Watchlist Update: DNO (DNO.OL)

Baghdad offers guarantees to IOCs – is this the breakthrough?

The latest signals from Baghdad and Erbil suggest that the long-awaited restart of oil exports from Kurdistan may finally be within reach – and this time, the international oil companies (IOCs) are squarely in focus.

Over the weekend, Rudaw reported that the Iraqi federal government has provided guarantees to IOCs that their production sharing contracts will not be altered. This came alongside the proposal for a joint technical committee between Baghdad and Erbil to coordinate the relaunch of oil exports through the Iraq-Türkiye Pipeline (ITP).

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No changes to contracts

According to a Rudaw source, oil companies have now received assurances that:

• Existing contracts will not be interfered with

• The transitional period will not be used to renegotiate terms

• IOC receivables – including the $1 billion owed from October 2022 to March 2023 – will be addressed via dedicated oil allocations

This is one of the strongest public signals yet that Baghdad is willing to compromise to get exports flowing again – and it comes at a time when both sides face rising public pressure to resolve the dispute.

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Technical track: Committee formed to coordinate restart

A newly established joint ministerial committee – led by Iraq’s Planning Minister – convened on July 8 and has since met with IOCs and KRG officials to lay the groundwork for an export restart.

This “technical track” marks a shift from political grandstanding to implementation planning. The committee reportedly supports ongoing engagement with IOCs and the formalisation of guarantees to ensure contract security and transparency in payment mechanisms.

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APIKUR: We’re ready, but need it in writing

In parallel, APIKUR issued a new press release on July 14, reiterating that its members – which produce 60% of Kurdistan’s oil – are ready to resume exports immediately, provided that written agreements are signed to guarantee:

• Contract sanctity

• Payment of arrears (either in cash or “in kind” oil)

• Transparent and timely disbursement going forward

Myles Caggins, APIKUR’s spokesman, stated plainly:

“APIKUR member companies stand ready to resume exports as soon as written agreements are executed that honor our existing contracts.”

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A moment of opportunity for DNO?