The group represents 21.85% of shares, and notably, Tobias Erevik has now crossed the 20% threshold in voting rights through a combination of direct ownership and proxies.

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What just happened

At the AGM on 14 April, the current board effectively held the line:

• Shareholder proposals on

  • reducing the NAV discount

  • limiting administrative costs

  • strengthening governance
    were not approved

• The board was re-elected, with Anders Onarheim continuing as Chair

• Board compensation remains high, with

  • Chair: NOK 2.05m

  • Members: NOK 333k

At the same time, the company distributed a modest dividend of NOK 0.13/share, framed as return of paid-in capital.

The response: forced EGM

Shortly after, the shareholder group escalated:

• Formal request for EGM submitted

• Proposal to replace the entire board

• Proposal for extraordinary dividend authorization (~NOK 1.9/share)

• Clear mandate:
  → maximize capital returns
  → cut costs
  → actively utilize tax assets

The company has confirmed it will call the EGM.

Control is the key question

Erevik now controls ~20.36% of votes, largely via proxies.

This is important:

• It shows organized minority pressure is real

• But it is not enough on its own to win a vote

• Outcome will depend on:

  • turnout

  • alignment from other large shareholders

  • whether passive holders engage

In short: this becomes a coordination game

Valuation disconnect remains

According to our model:

• Conservative NAV: ~NOK 4/share

• Last price: ~NOK 2.80

→ ~30% discount to NAV

The key driver here is Reach Subsea, which represents the core underlying asset in North Energy.

In our deep dive last month, we argued that the market is mispricing a trough year as structural decline, while the company is in reality transitioning into a higher-margin subsea robotics model with earnings set to inflect into 2027–2030.

At current levels, North’s holding alone implies roughly ~NOK 3 per share in value, meaning a large part of the discount can be traced directly to how the market is valuing Reach.

Why this matters

This is no longer just a “quiet NAV discount case”.

We now have:

• A coordinated shareholder bloc (>20%)

• A clear strategy for value realization

• A binary catalyst (EGM outcome)

If successful, this could:

• accelerate capital returns

• compress the NAV discount materially

If not, the discount likely persists.

Follow the situation live

We’ve set up a private channel on the Nordic Alpha Discord for those who want to follow this situation more closely.

The channel will be used for:

• ongoing updates

• discussion around the EGM

• coordination and Q&A

Importantly, the initiator of the shareholder group is also participating, which makes this a useful place to stay close to developments as they unfold.

Join the shareholder channel

Final thoughts

North Energy has moved from a passive discount story to an active shareholder situation.

The setup is simple:

• NAV: ~4 NOK

• Price: ~2.80 NOK

• Catalyst: shareholder vote

The missing piece is votes.

And in situations like this, that’s everything.

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Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always conduct your own research or consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions. The author may hold positions in the mentioned securities.

At a high level, the company has secured roughly $1.1bn in additional backlog, taking total backlog to around $2.8bn through 2030, while extending key rigs well into the end of the decade.

Importantly, this is structured as a blend-and-extend, meaning:
– No transition time between contracts
– Continued utilisation across the fleet
– Improved long-term visibility

This directly reinforces what we highlighted in last week’s trade alert:
that Constellation is moving from a recovery story into a cash flow and distribution phase.

Visibility moves from “good” to “very strong”

One of the key takeaways from the renegotiation is just how much visibility has improved.

Based on updated estimates, revenue coverage for the next two years is now close to full, placing Constellation among the best-covered names in the offshore peer group.

At the same time, the earnings impact is positive, with consensus set to move higher on both 2026 and 2027.

But more important than the near-term uplift is the risk profile:

→ Less downtime risk
→ Lower recontracting uncertainty
→ More predictable cash flow

This is exactly the type of setup that typically supports both multiple expansion and capital returns.

Dividend story moving faster

The renegotiation also strengthens what is arguably the most important part of the thesis: dividends.

Already in our trade alert, we highlighted that the company was targeting a first distribution potentially as early as Q2.

Based on the latest commentary, that now looks increasingly imminent. Management has indicated that an initial quarterly distribution of around $25m is expected to be paid by the end of April 2026, subject to AGM approval – with bondholder consent already secured and the AGM largely a formality.

Following Renecon, the key shift is not just timing, but scalability.

Broker estimates point towards:
– A meaningful ramp-up in distributions through H2 2026
– A potential run-rate yield moving towards ~20%

In other words, the narrative is shifting from:
→ “Will they pay?”
to
→ “How much can they return?”

🔒 Behind the paywall: Why this matters now

Read more

But beneath the surface, something more interesting has been developing.

Back in October, a single Amazon job posting mentioning AutoStore by name was enough to trigger a sharp rally in the stock.

At the time, it was just one data point.

Today, it looks more like the first piece of a puzzle.

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From signal to structure

A newly surfaced Business Insider article outlining Amazon’s internal “Project Kobe” reveals a much more concrete picture.

Amazon is developing a new retail format – combining Walmart-style supercentres with embedded, robotics-powered fulfilment.

And critically:

👉 The system at the core of these facilities is AutoStore

This shifts the narrative from potential deployment to early-stage implementation within a new operating model.

A third data point

A month ago supply chain expert Brian Ladd also highlighted Amazon’s increasing focus on micro-fulfilment and automation inside retail formats, reinforcing the same direction of travel.

Individually, each signal can be dismissed.
Together, they form a pattern:

1. October – job posting mentions AutoStore

2. March – Project Kobe links AutoStore to a new retail concept

3. Ongoing – industry voices pointing to integrated retail + automation as the next step

Why this matters

Project Kobe is not a marginal initiative. It is an attempt to:

• Compete directly with Walmart in physical retail

• Integrate online and offline fulfilment in one location

• Use robotics and AI to improve efficiency

Each store embeds a large-scale fulfilment system inside a ~225,000 sq ft footprint – with roughly half dedicated to warehouse operations.

That creates a very specific requirement:

👉 Maximum storage density within constrained space

Which is exactly where AutoStore excels.

Not just a contract

If AutoStore becomes part of this architecture, the opportunity is not one deal – it is:

• Multi-site rollout across a new store format

• Potential standardisation within Amazon’s retail strategy

• Strong signalling effect to other global retailers

This is how category leaders are made – not through single wins, but through embedded positions in scalable systems.

But still early

There is an important caveat.

Amazon is also developing its own internal solution (Orbital), which could eventually compete with or complement AutoStore.

And Project Kobe itself remains in early stages.

So this is not a confirmed outcome – it is emerging evidence.

The setup

This is what makes the current setup interesting:

• The stock is down ~30% on macro concerns from its recent peak

• The fundamentals remain intact

• And the strategic narrative may actually be improving

Final thoughts

Back in October, the market reacted to a single line in a job posting.

Five months later, we now have multiple signals pointing in the same direction.

It still isn’t confirmed.
But it is no longer random either.

And in markets, that transition – from noise to pattern – is often where repricing begins.

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Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always conduct your own research or consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions. The author may hold positions in the mentioned securities.

While much of the overall direction will be familiar to readers who have followed the company over the past year, the presentation added important operational detail – particularly around the Vusion partnership, the evolution of the Order Picking platform, and how management views the next phase of international growth.

Several themes stood out.

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Order Picking remains the core growth engine

The centrepiece of StrongPoint’s strategy continues to be its in-store Order Picking platform, which helps grocers fulfil online orders directly from stores.

CEO Jacob Tveraabak reiterated the importance of the solution during the presentation, noting that it sits at the heart of the company’s push toward higher recurring revenues.

Today’s update provided more visibility into how the product is evolving.

StrongPoint and Vusion are now developing a joint roadmap of integrated features, including:

• Shelf-Verified Order Picking

• Pick-to-Tote optimisation

• Geo-location integration

• AI-assisted routing for pickers

The idea behind these additions is to move beyond simple picking software and build a fully integrated in-store fulfilment platform.

For example, Shelf-Verified Order Picking combines StrongPoint’s picking software with Vusion’s Captana shelf cameras, allowing the system to detect missing items in real time and guide pickers accordingly.

As grocery e-commerce volumes grow, solutions that improve picking accuracy and efficiency could become increasingly valuable for retailers.

Vusion partnership moving from concept to execution

The partnership with VusionGroup, announced previously, was a central topic during the investor update.

Management explained that the relationship now operates on several levels:

• StrongPoint acts as a Value-Added Reseller (VAR) of Vusion’s retail technology portfolio in its markets

• StrongPoint integrates its Order Picking software directly into Vusion’s cloud ecosystem

• The companies are jointly developing new retail solutions

Vusion already operates in more than 60,000 stores globally, making it one of the largest platforms for retail digitalisation.

For StrongPoint, the partnership potentially expands the company’s reach well beyond the markets it historically served.

It also allows StrongPoint’s software to be embedded within a broader technology stack already used by large international grocers.

Recurring revenue transition underway

Read more

Military developments, shipping patterns and offshore activity in the Gulf can change quickly. That uncertainty alone is enough to create volatility across the energy complex.

But when looking at ABL Group, the relationship between geopolitical disruption and business performance is rarely straightforward. In many cases, crises like this do not simply destroy activity – they reshape where and how consulting work emerges across the offshore value chain.

That nuance may help explain why the stock has held up well recently. Since our late January trade alert, the share price has moved 16% higher while the broader market has been digesting the geopolitical shock.

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A quick reminder: what ABL actually does

ABL is not an oil producer and it is not a shipping company.

Instead, it operates in the technical advisory layer of the energy industry, supporting offshore projects, marine operations, asset integrity and energy infrastructure through a mix of engineering, consulting and marine expertise.

The group operates through several divisions:

• ABL – marine and engineering consultancy

• AGR – subsurface and well advisory services

• OWC – offshore wind consulting

• Longitude – engineering and design, including FPSO work

This positioning is important.

Because ABL’s role is often tied to risk management, project execution and problem-solving, periods of operational disruption can sometimes increase the demand for specialised expertise rather than reduce it.

Where Hormuz actually intersects with ABL’s business

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What began as a high-conviction growth story built around a NOK 500 million revenue ambition has instead evolved into a sequence of guidance revisions, accounting scrutiny, leadership change and ultimately a capital raise at the stock’s all-time low since its IPO in 2020.

At the centre of the investment case today is a simple question:

Has Elliptic Labs reached a genuine reset point – or is the credibility rebuild still in its early stages?

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From breakthrough year to broken narrative

Momentum peaked in 2024, when Elliptic Labs delivered the strongest financial performance in its history.

The company reported:

• NOK 131.9 million in revenue

• NOK 25.1 million EBITDA

At that point the growth story appeared intact. Analysts expected revenue to continue scaling as laptop adoption accelerated and smartphone deployments expanded.

By the end of 2025 the company had launched its technology on 227 smartphone models and 58 laptop models, demonstrating meaningful commercial adoption.

But the narrative began to break in 2025.

Revenue fell sharply in the first half of the year, reaching NOK 26.6 million in Q1 and NOK 24.6 million in Q2. Management attributed the weakness to milestone timing, explaining that two laptop contracts with combined minimum commitments of roughly NOK 55 million would instead be recognised later in the year.

Initially, investors accepted the explanation.

However, later reassessment of the laptop contract accounting led the company to restate the Q3 figures, materially altering the financial picture for 2025.

The Q3 restatement that changed the story

The developments that ultimately led to the Q3 restatement unfolded over several months.

The first signal came in September 2025, when CFO Lars Holmøy stepped down and Mathias Norderud was appointed interim CFO.

Leadership changes continued shortly afterwards. On 6 November 2025, CEO Laila Danielsen departed with immediate effect after twelve years leading the company, and Ola Sandstad, previously SVP Product Development, assumed the role of interim CEO.

Less than a week later, on 12 November, the company released a profit warning together with preliminary Q3 figures, reporting revenue of roughly NOK 42 million and EBITDA of NOK 12.7 million.

These numbers were later confirmed when the company published its full Q3 report on 20 November 2025. At the time, the results suggested that the company had regained momentum after the weak first half of the year.

The more significant shift came several months later.

During the preparation of the year-end accounts, the accounting treatment of two laptop contracts signed in the second half of 2025 was reassessed under IFRS 15. The review concluded that the minimum commitments in these contracts could not be recognised upfront, but instead had to be distributed over the contract duration.

When Elliptic Labs reported its Q4 and full-year 2025 results in February 2026, the Q3 figures were therefore restated.

The revision materially changed the quarter:

• Q3 revenue revised from NOK 42.6 million to NOK 8.5 million

• EBITDA shifted from +NOK 12.7 million to –NOK 21.5 million

While the adjustment related specifically to those two contracts, the restatement fundamentally altered the financial picture of 2025.

Insider optics

The leadership transition also occurred in a sensitive context.

Shortly before stepping down, CEO Laila Danielsen sold 2 million shares in August 2025 at roughly NOK 11.5 per share, raising approximately NOK 23 million. The transaction coincided almost exactly with the company’s Q2 2025 earnings presentation, which Danielsen delivered herself.

The tone of that presentation was notably confident. Management described the weak first half as temporary and expressed confidence that the company would still achieve double-digit revenue growth for 2025. The NOK 55 million laptop contracts signed during the quarter were highlighted as a near-term catalyst, with the majority of the revenue expected to be recognised in Q3.

Three months later, those same contracts became central to the subsequent IFRS 15 reassessment. Revenue that had initially been expected to contribute roughly NOK 36 million in Q3 was ultimately redistributed across the contract duration, significantly reducing the reported figures for that quarter.

Whether the Q2 commentary reflected genuine conviction, incomplete understanding of the accounting implications, or an attempt to present the outlook in the most favourable light ahead of the insider sale is impossible to determine from public information alone.

What is observable is the sequence of events – optimistic forward guidance, a NOK 23 million insider sale at more than three times the current share price, the CEO’s departure three months later, and a restatement of the very revenue that had been highlighted as the near-term growth driver.

That sequence has inevitably influenced investor perception of the company’s communication and governance.

Rebuilding confidence will likely take time.

Q4: the financial clean-up

The Q4 report effectively closed the chapter on the previous accounting treatment.

Revenue recovered to NOK 42 million, although NOK 16 million of this represented milestone revenue redistributed from the Q3 restatement.

Several additional adjustments amplified the negative optics:

• NOK 7.7 million write-down of trade receivables

• roughly NOK 4 million in management transition costs

• NOK 87 million deferred tax asset derecognition

The tax adjustment alone produced a headline FY2025 net loss of NOK 138 million.

While largely non-cash, the optics were severe and the share price subsequently fell to new lows.

The harder accounting question

The restatement formally applied only to the two laptop contracts signed in H2 2025.

Auditors described the change as a contract-specific reassessment under IFRS 15, rather than a broader accounting policy change.

Technically, that allows earlier financial statements to remain unchanged.

Analytically, however, investors are asking whether similar revenue timing dynamics may have existed in earlier contracts as well.

Elliptic Labs has reported days sales outstanding around 280–320 days every year since 2022 – an unusually high level that suggests revenue has historically been recognised far ahead of cash collection.

This matters because FY2024 – the company’s record revenue year – was also the year when receivables increased most sharply.

If milestone revenues were recognised early in the contract lifecycle, part of the FY2024 peak may reflect revenue timing that the 2025 reassessment effectively unwound.

None of this means earlier accounting was necessarily incorrect.

But it does mean FY2024 may not be a perfectly clean baseline for comparison.

Analysts recalibrate their models

The restatement and near-term outlook have triggered a sharp reset in analyst expectations.

Following the Q4 report and accounting changes, Sparebank 1 Markets lowered its target price to NOK 4 per share (from NOK 7), reflecting reduced revenue forecasts and a more cautious view on the industry backdrop.

Earlier research from Pareto Securities published before the restatement had a NOK 13 target, based on improving operational metrics and expectations of continued model launches and royalty growth.

The gap between those two targets illustrates how far expectations have already reset. With the share price now reflecting a far lower starting point, even modest execution improvements could translate into meaningful upside if the commercial momentum in shipments eventually materialises in the financials.

Looking beyond the revenue headline

The official numbers show revenue falling from NOK 133 million in 2024 to NOK 101 million in 2025 – a decline of roughly 23 percent.

But the underlying picture is more nuanced.

Read more

This week, the timeline potentially moved forward.

Constellation has launched a consent solicitation to amend its bond indenture, seeking flexibility to pay dividends earlier than the current 1.25× net leverage threshold would allow. According to Clarksons Securities, which is acting as solicitation agent in the process, the proposal would permit dividends of up to USD 25m per quarter starting April 2026, subject to bondholder approval.

In other words:
the dividend story is shifting from conditional to potentially near-term.

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From “2026 threshold” to “April 2026 payer?”

In our recent sector update following offshore consolidation, we emphasised how Constellation already had one of the clearest 2026 dividend pathways in the space.

This amendment seeks to shorten that path.

Instead of waiting for leverage to mechanically breach 1.25× – something we previously expected in 2H 2026 – management is now attempting to secure flexibility to initiate distributions earlier in the year.

If approved, dividends could begin as soon as Q2 2026.

That is a meaningful shift in perception.

Timing and outreach

The consent expires March 3.
Immediately thereafter, Constellation presents at:

• JP Morgan Global Leveraged Finance

• JP Morgan Emerging Markets

• DNB Energy & Shipping

• Clarkson’s Drilling Conference

Full-year 2025 results follow on March 23.

This is not passive communication. It is coordinated outreach.

Management appears intent on entering this conference cycle with a clearer capital return narrative – not just an operational one.

Why this matters

In All Eyes on Búzios, we focused on backlog, dayrates and deleveraging.

That story remains intact.

But capital allocation is what broadens the shareholder base.

At ~4× forward EV/EBITDA, the equity is already priced at a deep discount to peers. Introducing a visible, near-term dividend – potentially up to USD 100m annually – changes the investor conversation materially.

Dividend initiations are information events.
This move increases the probability that Constellation becomes one in 2026.

NHG view

Constellation was already one of the clearest 2026 dividend candidates on Oslo Børs.

This move increases the likelihood that the market starts pricing that reality sooner rather than later.

A visible Q2 2026 dividend – even modest at first – would materially change how the equity is screened, particularly at ~4× forward EV/EBITDA.

Execution remains key, but the direction of travel is becoming clearer.

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Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always conduct your own research or consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions. The author may hold positions in the mentioned securities.

PEN has been part of our Gullinbursti Dividend Portfolio since the beginning. This transaction represents a clear inflection point in the company’s evolution. It meaningfully alters the growth trajectory and, over time, the foundation for future dividend capacity.

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The Transaction in Brief

Key parameters:

• Initial consideration: USD 180 million, effective 1 January 2025

• Contingent consideration: Up to USD 39.5 million linked to production and oil price thresholds

• Net 2P reserves added: 46 MMbbls

• Entry multiple: USD 3.91 per 2P barrel

• Financing: Equity private placement plus USD 150 million bond tap

Post-closing, Panoro’s interest in Block G increases from 14.25% to 54.625%, making it the largest partner in the block.

This is not a new geography or unfamiliar asset. Panoro has owned part of Block G since 2021 and achieved payback within 18 months on the original acquisition. The company knows the subsurface, the infrastructure and the joint venture dynamics. That materially reduces the typical acquisition risk.

What Actually Changes?

1) Reserves – A Step Change in Longevity

The acquisition increases 2P reserves by roughly 110%. Even after issuing ~20 million new shares, reserves per share rise meaningfully.

Block G itself still holds substantial remaining potential:

• Approximately 2.4 billion barrels STOIIP

• Average recovery factor to date of around 21%

As the largest JV partner, Panoro gains more influence over future work programmes and recovery initiatives.

Implication:
The asset life supporting future dividends becomes both longer and more robust.

2) Production – Path to ~20,000 bopd

Working interest production in 2025 was 10,263 bopd.

With the additional Block G interest included, 2026 production is guided at:

• 15,000 to 17,000 bopd on a pro forma basis

Management targets approximately:

• 20,000 bopd in 2027 once Ceiba recovery and MaBoMo Phase 2 are completed

That is close to a doubling of production versus FY 2025.

For a cash-generative E&P company, scale matters. It improves lifting flexibility, enhances hedging options, lowers unit costs and strengthens the foundation for sustainable distributions.

3) Cash Flow and Balance Sheet

FY 2025 delivered:

• Revenue of USD 216.8 million

• EBITDA of USD 97.5 million

• Net cash flow from operations of USD 73.3 million

• Net leverage of 1.0x

Post-deal, gross debt increases following the USD 150 million bond tap. Leverage will move higher, but it does so against a significantly expanded production base.

This is a deliberate decision to gear into assets the company already understands, not a pivot into higher-risk exploration.

The Dividend Angle – Stronger Medium Term, Transitional 2026

This is where expectations need to be adjusted.

2026 Distribution Capacity

Read more

By consolidating a large share of global high-spec deepwater capacity – including much of the sidelined fleet – the deal materially reduces the risk of value-destructive reactivations and short-cycle pricing behaviour. The immediate effect is not higher demand, but better behaviour: fewer forced bids, more rational tenders, and improved pricing discipline at the margin.

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Why this matters for Constellation

Against that backdrop, Constellation Oil Services (COSH.OL) continues to stand out as one of the more attractive offshore names.

As highlighted in earlier NHG writeups, Constellation entered 2026 with:

• High backlog visibility, placing it at the upper end of the peer group

• Declining transition risk, with the heaviest contract rollovers largely behind it

• A clearly defined deleveraging path, already well advanced

Looking across recent analyst estimates, Constellation trades at ~3–4× forward EV/EBITDA on 2026–27 numbers, versus ~5–7× for most deepwater peers – a 40–50% discount despite comparable asset quality and improving contract economics.

At the same time, earnings are expected to step up meaningfully into 2026 as higher-rate contracts roll on, implying high-teens to low-20s free cash flow yields once capex normalises. That combination – low multiples today with visible earnings uplift tomorrow – continues to stand out relative to how most offshore drillers are valued.

From stabilisation to capital returns

As offshore drilling moves from balance-sheet repair toward normalisation, the focus naturally shifts from survival to cash generation and capital returns.

Constellation already has a defined framework in place, with distributions permitted once net leverage falls below ~1.25×. Based on current earnings visibility and deleveraging progress, that threshold is expected to be reached during the second half of 2026, positioning the company as one of the offshore names with a clearly defined and attractive dividend pathway – a theme we have previously highlighted on NHG.

Industry consolidation does not create this upside on its own, but it reinforces it by improving contract behaviour and pricing discipline at the margin.

NHG view

The Transocean–Valaris merger does not change Constellation’s execution requirements.
But it improves the operating backdrop.

In a more disciplined offshore market, companies with high visibility, falling risk and low valuation multiples tend to benefit disproportionately. On that score, Constellation remains one of the more compelling setups in the space.

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Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always conduct your own research or consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions. The author may hold positions in the mentioned securities.

The aim is to clarify what could realistically change, what is less likely, and where uncertainty is likely to persist.

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What the indictment changes – and what it doesn’t

The indictment represents a shift in formality.

“Økokrim has decided to indict Hemla in relation to suspected corruption committed on behalf of Hemla in the Congo. Økokrim has decided not to press charges relating to suspected market manipulation on behalf of PetroNor.”1

• Økokrim has moved from a investigation phase to a court process.

• The charges are directed at Hemla, a wholly owned indirect subsidiary, not PetroNor E&P ASA itself.

• Market manipulation charges against PetroNor have been dropped.

Operationally, the company has stated it will continue to operate in the normal course of business. There are no indications of immediate production or license interruptions.

What does change is the time horizon: the process now becomes legal rather than investigative – and prolonged.

Most concrete historical impact: dividend timing

Management has been unusually explicit about this risk in the past.

“Liquidity for a shareholder return would come from the operations in Congo, and currently there is a risk that extracting funds from Congo would negatively impact the Company’s commitment to fully cooperating with the authorities.”2

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Operationally and financially, the investment case remains intact. From a valuation perspective, the stock continues to trade at a material discount relative to underlying cash generation, with dividend capacity underpinned by low costs, rising production and very light 2026 capex. This brings us back to a familiar question, now sharper in focus:

Can PetroNor continue to return excess cash to shareholders while contesting a subsidiary-level corruption indictment linked to its only producing asset?

What changed since the last update

Read more

This now appears to be StrongPoint’s third AutoStore project in the UK, following two UK wins announced in 2025.

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Why this is worth noting

At StrongPoint’s current scale, this is a clearly material contract:

• ~8% of annual revenue (FY 2024: MNOK 1,309)

• ~7–8% of quarterly revenue if recognised evenly

• ~20% of current market capitalisation (NOK 489 million)

In short, this adds meaningful revenue visibility rather than being a symbolic announcement.

Read-through to the broader story

This does not represent a change in thesis – but it fits well with the trajectory outlined in earlier coverage.

UK AutoStore traction has so far been incremental rather than linear. When discussing earlier UK wins, CEO Jacob Tveraabak described them as a “breakthrough” phase focused on building credibility and reputation in a new market, not a rapid roll-out story.

A third UK AutoStore project supports that pattern: repeat execution in the same market, with increasing customer confidence over time.

UK momentum is building

The UK business delivered exceptional growth in Q3 2025 – up 127% year-on-year to NOK 113 million (from NOK 49.8 million in Q3 2024) – driven by the installation of the first AutoStore project (cosmetics retailer), ESL rollouts, and shop fitting work.

Management described the UK as “well into black figures” after previous profitability challenges, marking an important inflection point.

Bottom line

This is a material contract win that adds tangible revenue visibility and further builds StrongPoint’s UK automation track record. Securing a third AutoStore project in the UK points to growing customer confidence and reinforces the role of automation as a meaningful contributor to the order book.

The announcement comes ahead of StrongPoint’s Q4 2025 earnings, scheduled for 12 February. An earnings call summary will follow after the results.

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Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always conduct your own research or consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions. The author may hold positions in the mentioned securities.

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1. Infill well performance – early Q4 insight matters most

The first Tchibouela East well only started producing on 25 September, so Q3 will show very limited contribution.

What really matters tomorrow is whether management provides updated flow data from October and November, including:

• Early stabilised rates

• How results compare to expectations for the remaining four wells

• Any visibility on combined Q4 production uplift

These datapoints will shape expectations for the full five-well programme.

2. Cash position and November lifting impact

With no liftings in Q3, net cash at quarter-end should sit around USD 50m, down from USD 60.6m in June.

The call should ideally update on the early-November 500,000+ barrel lifting, which at current prices implies USD 30–33m in gross revenue. Key elements to watch:

• Net cash position after the lifting

• Realised pricing

• Signals around potential 2025 distributions

3. Remaining infill wells – timeline confirmation

PetroNor has guided that the remaining four wells in the campaign should complete by early December.

Tomorrow’s call should clarify:

• Whether the schedule remains intact

• Expected timing of wells coming online

• Implications for Q4 exit rates and early 2026 volumes

Any delays push meaningful cash flow into next year.

4. 2026 outlook – direction of travel

Read more

Here are the three numbers that matter.

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1) How much of Q3 was Lenovo – and how much wasn’t?

The NOK 42.3m headline means little without the split:

• If Lenovo contributed only ~14–15m, Q3 missed guidance by a wide margin.

• If Lenovo contributed 28–33m (“the majority of the minimum commitment”), the core business collapsed by 50–65% y/y.

This single datapoint will determine whether Q3 was a timing issue or a structural deterioration. ELABS must show the split – smartphone vs laptop vs Lenovo milestone – or risk further eroding trust.

2) Updated full-year guidance – and whether double-digit growth survives

Nine months into the year, revenue totals NOK 93.5m.
To reach even the minimum of the ‘double-digit growth’ target for 2025, ELABS needs Q4 revenue of roughly NOK 60 million – around 25% above Q4 2024’s NOK 47.6 million.

The report must therefore provide:

• Clear Q4 expectations

• Transparency on Lenovo timing

• A credible bridge from Q3 to full-year targets

After multiple guidance slips, the market expects hard numbers, not optimistic phrasing.

3) Customer concentration and recurring revenue stability

The early Q3 update suggested heavy reliance on milestone revenue. The company must now demonstrate that its recurring engine is intact:

• Are smartphone royalties stable with Xiaomi, Vivo, Honor, Transsion?

• What is the laptop run-rate?

• How much revenue comes from the top 1–3 customers?

• What does the figures look like excluding milestones?

If recurring revenue is shrinking beneath milestone noise, investors will price ELABS accordingly.

What the market needs to see to regain confidence

Three ingredients for a rerating:

• Transparency: A full revenue breakdown and honest guidance reset.

• Execution: A Q4 number close to NOK 60m.

• Durability: Evidence that recurring smartphone/laptop royalties are growing.

Until then, the stock remains deep in “show me” territory.

NHG will continue monitoring the developments closely and will return next week with our reflections on the full Q3 earnings release.

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Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always conduct your own research or consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions. The author may hold positions in the mentioned securities.

At today’s 12.65 NOK (12.11.2025), the investment case is primarily about the timing, size and reliability of these distributions.

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Phase 1: Expected distribution in Q2 2026

The company has agreed to sell its largest assets for USD 27.1m, with closing targeted for Q2 2026.
MPCES states it intends to distribute a substantial portion of the proceeds and existing free cash after completion.

Based on the figures in the shareholder circular:

→ Expected Phase-1 payout: ~14–15 NOK per share

This comes after setting aside required reserves, including:

• 15% warranty guarantee (USD 4.1m) for 18 months

• Minimum cash balance for 12–18 months

• Working capital for remaining assets

• Transaction costs and contingencies

These requirements explain why the initial distribution is significant, but not larger.

Phase-1 upside vs 12.65 NOK: ~10–20%.

Phases 2–4: Additional value, but lower conviction

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Constellation Oil Services (COSH.OL) is the market-leading offshore drilling contractor in Brazil, controlling over 20 % of the country’s deep- and ultra-deepwater rigs. Following a transformative $1.3 bn recapitalisation and Oslo listing in early 2025, the company now combines a clean balance sheet (net leverage ≈ 2×) with a record $2 bn backlog.

The share trades around NOK 100–105, valuing the company at just 3× 2026 EV/EBITDA and a ~20 % free-cash-flow yield, far below global peers on 5–6×. Liquidity has remained thin since listing, but several larger block trades have crossed in recent weeks – including a ~USD 2 m transaction yesterday – indicating selective institutional interest in the name.

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The near-term catalyst: Petrobras’ Búzios tender

Petrobras launched a multi-billion-dollar tender in May 2025 for up to four deepwater rigs for the Búzios pre-salt field, with the official process opening 16 June 2025.
Historically, Petrobras confirms rig awards four to six months after opening — placing the expected announcement window between late October and early December 2025.

Constellation’s 7G drillship Brava Star is widely viewed as a prime contender. Both SpareBank 1 Markets and Clarksons Securities cite the rig as one of the favourites, with contract commencement expected Q4 2026 – Q1 2027.

Industry chatter suggests Búzios awards could cover three to four rigs, each on 2.5–3-year contracts around USD 380 k/day with optional extensions. For Brava Star, that would extend firm backlog well into 2030 and bridge perfectly with the current Petrobras charter expiring December 2026.

Analyst consensus turning bullish

• SpareBank 1 Markets (7 Oct 2025) – Buy, TP NOK 150

“Brava Star is considered a frontrunner in Petrobras’ ongoing Búzios tender… Constellation offers among the best risk-reward in the offshore driller space.”
SB1 models leverage below 1.25× by Q3 2026, unlocking dividends of USD 1.1–2.8 per share (≈ 11–28 % yield).

• Clarksons Securities (29 Aug 2025) – Buy, TP NOK 170

“Odfjell Drilling’s Brazilian equivalent – with 100 % 2025 and 89 % 2026 revenues already contracted and capacity to distribute ~42 % of market cap in dividends by 2027.”

Both emphasise Constellation’s cost advantage – local crews and single-region focus reduce opex by USD 30–50 k/day versus global peers – and its flawless Petrobras track record (no contract cancellations in 44 years of operations).

2025–26 setup: transitional year before the cash-flow inflection

This year remains one of heavy rig preparation and contract rollover. 2025 guidance was reaffirmed after Q2 results:

• Revenue: USD 550–570 m

• EBITDA: USD 170–190 m

• Capex: ~USD 150 m, partly offset by mobilisation fees

Operating cash flow reached USD 110 m in H1, and leverage is already trending down. With five rigs transitioning to higher-dayrate contracts (USD 350–440 k/day) through 2025–26, EBITDA is expected to nearly double to USD 380 m in 2026, pushing net leverage below the 1.25× dividend threshold.

Once that line is crossed, management plans to return all excess cash via dividends and/or buybacks.

Market fundamentals remain supportive

Brazil accounts for roughly 37 % of global ultra-deepwater rig demand, and utilisation in the country is holding near 95 %. Petrobras’ 2025–29 plan targets USD 15 bn p.a. E&P capex and 17 new FPSOs by 2029.
While the broader floater market has softened this year, analysts expect utilisation to recover through 2026–27 as delayed tenders are finalised – with Búzios seen as the next anchor programme.

Petrobras’ Q3 earnings call (8 November) added another supportive data point. Management guided 2025 capex to land between the mid- and high-end of the range – around 5 % higher than initially projected – citing accelerated investments rather than cost inflation. They also confirmed that around 90 % of 2026 projects are already sanctioned, and that “stopping contracted projects is not even being considered”, highlighting a commitment to suppliers and stable activity.

For oil service companies like Constellation, this backdrop remains highly constructive.

NHG view: Low liquidity, high optionality

At ~NOK 100, Constellation trades where Odfjell Drilling (ODL.OL) did before its re-rating last year – only with a deeper backlog, lower leverage, and a vastly larger domestic market.
The Búzios outcome could be the spark that draws wider investor attention to a story combining:

1. Visible deleveraging and a coming dividend phase;

2. A cost-advantaged position in the world’s most active deepwater basin; and

3. A share price still implying deep undervaluation versus peers.

The latest Petrobras signals of accelerated 2025 spending and full commitment to sanctioned 2026 projects reinforce that Brazil’s offshore growth story remains intact.
With tender decisions expected imminently, the next few weeks could set the tone for Constellation’s 2026 re-rating story.

Refer a friend

Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always conduct your own research or consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions. The author may hold positions in the mentioned securities.

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Q3 and Full-Year 2025 Production

Group working interest production averaged 8,811 bopd in Q3, bringing the 9M 2025 average to 10,611 bopd.
Management now expects full-year production to come in just below 11,000 bopd, a modest downward revision from the 11–12 kbopd range guided at mid-year.

That implies Q4 output of roughly 11,750–12,000 bopd, a strong sequential recovery from Q3 (+35–40%) based on the following calculation:

(Full-year “just below 11,000” target equates to roughly 3.98 million barrels; subtracting 2.90 million produced in 9M leaves 1.08 million barrels to be produced in Q4.)

Regional Highlights

Gabon (Dussafu, 17.5%)

• Q3 output was constrained by three weeks of planned maintenance, limiting availability to 80%.

• FID has been taken for the MaBoMo Phase 2 four-well development campaign, with first oil targeted in H2 2026.

• The Bourdon discovery (≈25 mmbbl recoverable) is being matured toward FID, adopting a MaBoMo-style cluster concept.

• The next major lifting of ~950,000 barrels is scheduled for mid-November, confirming higher operational uptime entering Q4.

Management views Dussafu as a 30–40 kbopd production hub over the next five years, translating to 5,250–7,000 bopd net to Panoro.

Equatorial Guinea (Block G, 14.25%)

• Q3 production averaged 2,525 bopd, reflecting unplanned Ceiba field downtime.

• Partial restoration has been achieved, and full normalisation is expected by Q1 2026.

• On Block EG-23, the Estrella discovery (tested at 6,780 bopd, 48–50° API) has been high-graded for potential fast-track tie-back development.

Tunisia (TPS, 49%)

• Output remained steady at around 1,500 bopd, with ongoing workovers and optimisation expected to lift production modestly.

Financials and Shareholder Returns

• Realised oil price: USD 69.47/bbl in Q3 (+1% vs Brent)

• Cash: USD 44 million (including USD 15 million in prepayments)

• Debt: USD 150 million senior secured notes

• Distributions: NOK 320.8 million returned YTD (NOK 237.6 m cash + NOK 83.2 m buybacks)

• Policy: NOK 500 million cap for 2025, leaving ~NOK 180 million of remaining capacity for Q4

2026 Outlook: From Stabilisation to Growth

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That piece outlined how the company’s 2026 setup combines tax-shielded North Sea scale with steady Kurdistan cash flow, creating one of the most asymmetric risk-reward profiles on Oslo Børs. Yesterday’s Q3 confirmed that thesis in hard data: record EBITDA, strong cash generation, and visible growth catalysts through Verdande, Kjøttkake and Bestla.

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Analysts move in sync

• Clarksons Securities lifted its target from NOK 20 → 21 and reiterated Buy, calling DNO “well positioned for robust growth, supported by cash-generative North Sea fields and potential price uplift in Kurdistan.” The broker sees FCF/EV yield of 27 % in 2026 and P/E ≈ 3x on its estimates.

• DNB Carnegie upgraded from Hold → Buy and raised its target to NOK 17.5 (from 14), citing “strong operational momentum and full dividend coverage by free cash flow through this decade.” DNB now models ~10 % FCF yield in 2026 even with Kurdistan sales stuck in the USD 30s.

• SpareBank 1 Markets followed suit, lifting its target to NOK 18 (from 15) and noting that DNO’s North Sea portfolio is approaching 100 kboepd — a scale it says “likely justifies a lower cost of capital and higher earnings multiples.”

The bigger picture

All three reports emphasise the same structural turn we explored in our 2026 model:

• North Sea growth through fast-track tie-backs like Verdande and Kjøttkake.

• Kurdistan stability with 75–100 kbd gross, fully cash-funded.

• Double-digit yields sustained by diversified cash flow.

In short, the market narrative is shifting from “Kurdistan risk” to “cash-machine rerating.”

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DNO now trades near NOK 15, with targets clustered between NOK 17.5 and 21.
The data points are falling into place – and the 2026 story we modelled is starting to play out in real time.

💬 Join the discussion in our Nordic Alpha Discord – now over 325 members strong – where DNO is being followed live in the #dno-ol channel.

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Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always conduct your own research or consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions. The author may hold positions in the mentioned securities.

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Strategic rationale

The move fits DNO’s post-Sval strategy of highgrading toward core-area assets with long-term upside. Verdande and nearby Andvare are Norne tie-backs that together are guided to add roughly 7,000 boepd at peak once onstream.
Boosting Verdande by 3.5 percentage points could add roughly 500–1,000 boepd net at plateau, offsetting the ~600 boepd given up with Vilje; strengthening DNO’s position in one of its highest-return growth hubs.

Broader context

In the recent deep-dive – DNO 2026: Built for Both Storm and Sun – I highlighted how the North Sea has become a self-funded growth engine, with Verdande and Andvare among the first short-cycle tie-backs delivering cash-efficient growth. Today’s swap reinforces that trajectory – consolidating ownership where future value creation is greatest and exiting mature or non-core positions.

Bottom line

DNO keeps executing on its re-balancing plan – scaling up in Norway’s core areas while maintaining strong cash flow from Kurdistan and optionality from export recovery. With Verdande on track and appraisal campaigns (Carmen, Norma) slated for 2026, the North Sea story continues to gain weight at what still looks like a discounted valuation.

Heads-up: Q3 results drop tomorrow morning – Thursday, 6 November 2025. An earnings call summary will follow here shortly after.

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Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always conduct your own research or consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions. The author may hold positions in the mentioned securities.

The listing, titled Manager, New Tech Deployment (OMHS Integration & Deployment), describes a technical leader who will “lead our Project Execution team responsible for implementing advanced automation technologies across our network” and “structure and scale projects such as IBIS and AutoStore.”

That single sentence was enough to trigger a buying frenzy – and for good reason.

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Why it matters

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